"I think I can" Liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb right now, on the first day of the election and say that the Liberals will form the next Canadian government. It will likely be a minority government, but a small chance at a majority. Forget about any coalition talk. That kind of talk doesn't matter until after the election. I know what you're thinking, that I'm crazy. The polls have been strongly in favour of the Conservatives for some time now, and even flirting with majority territory. But this is why I think the winds will change:

1. The polls have been looking less favourable towards the Conservatives, given their latest antics of being found in contempt of Parliament, and their lacklustre budget.


2. An election will give the opportunity for Mr. Ignatieff a voice to write is own narrative, instead of the Conservatives writing it for him.


3. I wonder if the constant attack ads from the Conservatives will have run their course, because Canadian voters will be tired of them and in fact there may be a backlash against them.


4. It has been said often that you can't form a majority without winning Quebec or Ontario. The Conservatives are done in Quebec. Mr. Duceppe will build a sufficient narrative for people not to vote Conservative, but even if they don't vote Bloc, they'll vote Liberal or NDP. I think the Liberals will make some inroads here and potentially grab some seats from the Bloc. In the last election, I think that many Quebec voters parked their vote in the Bloc, because voting Liberal was distasteful (despite the Liberals having someone from Quebec leading the party). They will go back to the Liberal camp.


5. Ontario will be a big battleground, especially in the GTA. The question will be whether the Liberals will hang on to what they have and potentially grab a few seats. There may be a few exchanges, with the Conservatives taking immigrant votes (the traditional power base of the Liberals), but I think the net result will be in favour of the Liberals.


6. The Conservatives started out at the centre-right of the political spectrum when they won their first minority in 2006, but have been slowly moving further and further to the right. They've been able to use this to attract some immigrant voters, but I think it's beginning to lose traction with the middle of the road voters. The Liberals' centre-left stance, with emphasis on families and elder care in their current platform, will resonate with the public.


7. The caveat to the above point is that voters will see that the Conservatives were throwing peanuts at families and the elderly in their latest budget. Unfortunately, the Conservative climate over the past few years will have people throwing up their arms and saying it was better than nothing and possibly voting for the Conservatives with the notion of the devil you know.


8. B.C. voters are still smarting from the HST implementation, even with the cheques they received in the mail, courtesy of the federal Conservative Government. B.C. voters may not vote Liberal, but going to NDP, and possibly Green Party in one or two ridings, will reduce the Conservative caucus.


9. Canadian voters are not happy about going to the polls for a fourth time in seven years. They will be looking to vote in a majority government. Voting in the Conservatives for a majority will be sufficiently distasteful for enough Canadians that the Conservatives will fall short, so swing voters will vote for the Liberals.


10. From their recent appearances in the media, the Conservatives seem to be running scared. They're trying to go on the attack by raising the "coalition" boogeyman, but I see them going on the defensive during the campaign. Defense of their budget will not amount to much, especially if the Opposition can sell items like the Corporate Tax cut as something Canada can't afford at this time.


11. The Conservatives will have more difficulty controlling the media because they will need them to get their message out. Therefore, Mr. Harper will have to answer questions, rather than turning away and leaving (like he did after the post non-confidence vote statement he made yesterday). The Conservative handlers will also have more difficulty in picking and choosing which media outlets are picked to ask Mr. Harper questions. If they stick with their close control of the media, as they have been for the past several years, the media will turn against Mr. Harper and show the Conservatives as the party with something to hide.


12. But most importantly, in the last election, there was the lowest voter turnout in Canadian history. Many believe it was because Liberal voters stayed home since they couldn't support Stephane Dion as the Liberal leader. I believe that these voters will feel that they can come out and vote for the Liberals with Mr. Ignatieff at the helm. The Liberals have to focus on getting Liberal voters to the polls.

On May 3, you'll see me gloat, or eat my words!