Women's health groups in Canada have come out and said that Mr. Harper and his Conservatives will open up the abortion debate and make abortions illegal if they get a majority government. Mr. Harper has come out to categorically deny this and has said that if legislation comes up for a vote, that his government will vote against a law that bans abortions. I say poppycock!
Abortion is a key plank in the religious right vote, which is the Conservative base. Even though the government may not introduce legislation, a Conservative backbencher might (the same thing that happened when a bill was introduced to strike down the long gun registry - another Conservative support plank). Mr. Harper claiming that his government would vote against it means he will have to "whip" the vote, i.e. force his caucus to vote a certain way. I've heard it said that two thirds of his caucus supports making abortions illegal. If they are forced to vote against this legislation, these MPs will have to go back to their constiuents, who will no doubt be angry with them, which would mean a reduction in support for the Conservatives. If Mr. Harper allows a free vote, he's going to have to cross his fingers that enough of his caucus and the members of the Opposition will be sufficient to defeat this legislation. That would be walking a knife's edge, depending on the number of seats the Conservatives hold.
I'm doubtful that Mr. Harper would sacrifice support for his party in order to keep abortions legal, given his own religious beliefs, as well as the support he enjoys from the religious right. It means ensuring none of his backbenchers introduce a bill. I find it hard to believe Mr. Harper will be able to control some of his more militant caucus members if the Conservatives have a majority government.
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