February 24, 2006

The Groundhog as a Weatherman (Weatherhog?)

Correct me if I'm wrong. It seems to me that we have been experiencing more winter since Groundhog Day (Feb 2), than before...Haven't we?

Maybe it's because we're getting close to the Spring Equinox and I can't wait for it to happen soon enough. Or maybe it's because I'm having flashbacks of substantially positive temperatures in January and seeing reporters freeze stuff in the bone chilling cold of the prairies lately. Whatever the case, it's freakin' cold and I want it to rise a few degrees already! Where's that global warming everyone's been talking about? It was in all the papers!

I blame the groundhogs they use as Weathermen (Weatherhogs?). They come out of their holes once a year on Feb 2nd and give us their prediction weather (pun intended) there will be an early spring (if they don't see their shadow), or 6 more weeks of winter (if they do see their shadow).

The main Canadian Weatherhogs are Wiarton Willie of Ontario, Shubenacadie Sam of Nova Scotia, and Balzac Billie of Alberta. Of course, the first, and most famous Weatherhog is the "prognasticator of prognasticators," Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania. There are many wannabes, but these guys are the ones quoted most often in national news. Where did they stand on whether there will be an early spring this year? Willie, Sam and Billie said yes, and Phil said no....Wait a minute! There's something fishy going on here!!! Before I get into that, allow me to digress for a moment.

Let's talk about the Weatherhog as a predictor. I've trolled the Internet, looking for any info about what their records were when it came to their predictions (believe me, there are a lot of sites. There were 2.19 million hits on Google when you type in "groundhog day"). Couldn't find anything (maybe someone could direct me to a site if they come across one). Based on the weather this year, I'm thinking something's wrong. We make such a fuss about the whole Groundhog Day event (they even made a movie about it with Bill Murray -- is it just me or was their little difference in looks between him and the groundhog during parts of the film). I think we should hold these "professionals" accountable for their predictions. We do the same for the Weatherpeople on our TV stations....wait a second....here's a thought...The local Weatherperson will post a POP (probability of precipitation), right? Why don't the Weatherhogs post a CRAP (correctness (at) realizing all prognastications)! Yes. We can track their predictions, have Weatherpeople correctly identify when the weather definitely turns to spring and see just how correct the weatherhogs are. These can then be reported and we can truly see which Weatherhog is truly the best at predicting the coming of spring.....or is there a conspiracy of silence...hmmm...In any event, at least they'll always be right. GENIUS! What's that you say? How can that be? Think about it. When a Weatherperson gives you a POP of 30%, if it rains, they're right. If it doesn't, they're right also. They didn't always give a POP. They used to come out say whether it will rain or not. Now they give you probabilities. What kind of accu-weather mumbo jumbo are they trying to feed us? I could go on, but I've digressed enough.

Let's get back to this whole thing about Phil predicting six more weeks of winter, and his Canadian neighbours predicting an early spring. What's going on here? What conspiracy is brewing? Could this be a Canadian-American rivalry to gain weather prediction supremacy? Has the softwood lumber dispute spilled over to the Weatherhogs arena? Or could there be something more insidious?

Maybe...just maybe....it's a Conservative government conspiracy to take the public's mind off of the government's performance! Hey, they got elected two weeks before Groundhog Day. Maybe they're using this to distract us from their real agenda. What if the Liberals won, you say? Well, then it would have been a distraction from THEIR patronage appointments. Think about it. One thing Canadians, all Canadians, like to grumble about is the weather. Look at all the weather porn that's out there (...can't...look...away...must see what the temperature will be tomorrow...). If there's one thing that will distract Canadians, it's talk about the weather.

Don't believe it's a conspiracy? What single subject have you talked about most since Feb 2nd? Hmmm?!?!

Wings Over The World

(photo credit: www.southbrucepeninsula.com/index.cfm?member=willie)

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