March 23, 2011

Don't be fooled, the Conservative Government is forcing the election!

The Conservative Government would have you believe that the Opposition parties are forcing an election because they have stated they will not be supporting the budget. But I will show you that it is the Conservatives who have presented a budget that is a Conservative-induced election.

Before I get into the budget details, let us consider the Conservative tactics over the past couple of months. First, the ever present attack ads. Because an election hasn't been called, they are free to spend as much as they like on attack ads, and spend they have! The fact that they are making personal attacks, rather than on the policies of the Opposition, makes these go even further below the usual mud-slinging (you can thank Conservative strategists for taking lessons from American politics). Let us also consider the $26M the government is spending on promoting the Economic Action Plan. An unprecedented amount, even for a large corporation such as P&G promoting consumer products. Why are they doing this? The program is winding down (projects will have to be finished by the end of the year), and no new money will be allocated. It has been reported (and I have to agree) that this is a way for the Conservative Government to promote themselves, without having to dip into their party's war chest.

Now for the budget. The Conservative Government has said they have provided what the Opposition, and in particular, what the NDP had wanted. Mr. Layton has stated that the budget provides peanuts compared to what they were after and that they couldn't support the budget. Obviously, Jack isn't that cheap. So let's look at some of what the Conservatives are offering and why they're offering each item:

1. Forgiving a portion of student loans for doctors and nurses located in rural areas. This is in direct support of Conservative roots, and an attack on an rural NDP ridings. Rather than increasing the number of doctors, it merely relocates them from urban areas, likely on a temporary basis until their loans are paid. It doesn't stop them from relocating back to urban areas, and will create more difficulty in urban areas as doctors and nurses relocate until they meet the terms of this budget line item. Think about the TV series Northern Exposure.

2. Tax credit for volunteer fire fighters. Volunteer fire fighters are typically located in rural areas, so again, support for their rural base and an attack on NDP rural ridings.

3. Funding an all-season road link between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk. This is currently an NDP held riding and the Conservatives lost by 523 votes (only 3.8% of total votes cast). Obviously a riding the Conservatives are targeting to win.

4. Providing money to gun owners so that they don't have to pay anything for their gun registration renewal fees. The Conservative government couldn't kill the gun registry, so why not give money to their support base so they're not out of pocket?

5. Providing funds for closer ties to doing business with India. Increasing trade with other countries is not a bad thing, but given the gaffe from Jason Kenny's (Immigration Minister) office regarding releasing the Conservation plan to attract the immigrant vote, the cynic in me says they're trying to buy the South Asian vote in urban and suburban areas in order to grab a few seats.

6. Eliminating mandatory retirement. Again, not a bad thing, since it is discriminatory. But again, cynically speaking, it's a cop out in not providing better retirement benefits for the Boomer generation. This, combined with a modest increase in payments for seniors with the lowest income (Guaranteed Income Supplement), means they might get a few grey power votes. They missed the mark by not committing to pension reform.

7. Providing $4M to build a cyclotron in Thunder Bay to produce medical isotopes. A riding currently held by the NDP. The Conservatives were in a distant third place in both ridings in this area during the last election, so it looks like a Hail Mary pass to me. Maybe they think they have star candidates lined up that have a chance. Especially considering their other budget measures would be attractive for voters in this area.

8. Providing $50M over five years to the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics located in Waterloo, ON. This riding is held by a Conservative, but he won by only 17 votes! This riding will be hotly contested in the next election.

I think I could find other examples, but I believe I've proven my point, the Conservatives WANT THIS ELECTION! They are going after a majority by targeting specific ridings they intend to snatch from the Opposition parties. Are they using the events in Japan and Libya to overshadow ethical lapses and other scandals? The media will be distracted. A dissolution of parliament means no more committees to dredge up more wrongdoings. I've heard it said by one pundit that events that distract from elections, favour the sitting government. I believe the Conservatives are taking this to heart and going after the brass ring. The question that won't be answered until after the election is, will they snatch it?

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